- Lyra’s decentralized bitcoin options marketplace predicts a 20% chance of prices exceeding $70,000 by the end of April.
- Lyra just posted options with an April 26 expiry date, allowing traders to bet on price patterns ahead of and after bitcoin’s reward halving in mid-April.
- Bitcoin (BTC) has a one-in-five probability of reaching $70,000 by the end of April, according to options data from decentralized marketplace Lyra Finance.
“Lyra’s markets are implying a roughly 20% chance of bitcoin hitting fresh all-time highs (trading higher than $70,000) by April 26”
Nick Forster, Lyra’s founder and former Wall Street options trader
Traders on Lyra were well-positioned for bitcoin’s recent surge above $50,000. Their most recent prediction, that there is little chance of a record move above $70,000 by the end of April, may come as a surprise.
That’s because bitcoin has climbed 35% to $52,000 in three weeks, reaching its highest level since late 2021, thanks to large inflows into U.S.-based spot ETFs.
Crypto traders agree that bitcoin could see further rises if fiscal policy in the United States remains the most stimulative in years, offsetting increasing interest rates. The apparently positive quadrennial mining reward halving on the Bitcoin blockchain is also scheduled for April, and the possibility of a worldwide recession has dropped to its lowest level since December 2021, encouraging risk-taking across the financial sector.
Options are derivatives that offer the buyer the right, but not the duty, to buy or sell an underlying asset at a specified price at a later date. A call option grants someone the right to purchase an asset, whereas a put option grants the right to sell. The way options are priced at a given time provides insight into where knowledgeable traders believe the market will go in the future weeks and months.
Lyra is the world’s largest decentralized crypto options venue, accounting for 50% of the $32 million worldwide decentralized exchange (DEX) options turnover in the last 24 hours, according to DeFiLlama.
The network has posted bitcoin options with an April 26 expiry date, allowing traders to wager on price action before and immediately after the reward halving, which is scheduled for mid-April and is expected to reduce the rate of BTC supply increase by 50%.
